Who Will Win And Why They Will

The Golden Globes are odd…everyone makes a big deal about them even though it’s a tiny organization of voters generating all the heat, Oscar-buzz and advertising dollars. There are under 100 members, many aren’t even full time writers, and they once gave an award to Pia Zadora the week after her rich husband coincidentally had a segment of the voting board come over for a week long party. They’re suck-ups, cat-fighters, gossip-mongers and probably would trade their credentials for dinner and a ride home from their favorite star. Not that I wouldn’t accept the invite if asked.

So again, I’m not listing my favorites but trying to guess who the HFPA selected and why (the full list of nominees including my predictions are in yesterday’s post). Most of my selections weren’t even nominated, but I’ll save that “overlooked” column until after the Oscars.

 

"Why... so...serious?"

"Why... so...serious?"

Best Motion Picture – Drama
First category should tip you off that paparazzi…err, I mean foreign jornalists tend to fawn over their favorite stars regardless of the projects. I doubt you’ll see Milk excluded from the Oscars in place of two Kate Winslet features. But I think Slumdog will lose by a Button.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Normally I would think The Woodman would sway the crowd, but this year I will go out on a limb and predict the HFPA goes Abba crazy.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
I would love nothing more than to see Mickey Rourke complete that climb up the hill, but I think the film might not have been released widely enough and he might be doing one too many “lucky to get a break” interviews. Tough crowd here, but despite Langella’s masterwork and the love for Pitt, I suspect the comibation of performance and career gets Penn the award.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
I really do fear that Joliemania might get her the nod for a scenery chewing role, and Hathaway is trying really, really hard to make us forget that awful Disney picture. Kate’s just unlucky and Thomas’ movie was probably too elite, so longtime diva Streep gets the first of two on the night. (Melissa Leo, kudos regardless!)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Bruges’ Farrell and Gleason will probably cancel each other out, Franco’s movie is too goofy and Hoffman’s flick might be too late to get a groundswell. Not certain if Bardem’s role was lead or support, but he was great and will probably win. But where’s Russel Brand?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Heard Hawkins was amazing but haven’t seen it. Glad Hall got a nod, she was better than Scarlett J. But again I think Streep’s comedy and singing will get her the nod, and an amazing (first-ever?) Best Actress sweep.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
I fear Cruise’s win like I fear Jolie’s – considering this a category that covers both comedy and drama, his nomination is an insult to the category. Hoffman’s people wisely slotted him in this category because he’s really a lead in Doubt. But Ledger’s haunting, dynamic performance was one for the ages, and any thinking person will realize that it’s not just a sentimental pick. Well, I hope.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Wouldn’t it be great for Marisa Tomei to win another major award to silence the people still giving her crap about My Cousin Vinny? In case you haven’t noticed, she’s been on a roll lately. But Cruz exploded the moment she hit the screen and stole every scene she was in. She’s popular and the movie was more widely seen, and she probably can’t lose.

Best Director – Motion Picture
Simply for the scale of the movie – not to mention physically transforming Brad Pitt – Fincher will probably win. Wouldn’t bet the house, because Slumdog’s scope is no slouch either, and as captiavting a tale. Guess no one saw The Dark Knight.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Again Button slightly over Slumdog, but if I’m wrong in this category I’m probably wrong in the other two as well. It’s that close.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Springsteen’s haunting theme echoes what he did for the movie Philadelphia (even though Neil Young’s song was as good or better, but that’s another argument). Hoping if for nothing else it brings attention to the movie.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
I have no idea on this one, total guess. I’d imagine if enough people saw Defiance that the emotional resonance will swing this one their way.

Best Animated Film
Probably the safest bet on the board is that Wall-E (which many people voted Best Picture) will take this consolation prize.

Best Foreign Language Film
Another total guess. Gomorah sounds evil enough to me.

Best Television Series – Drama
Apparently these people don’t get the FX channel, because this last season of The Shield blew everything else off the screen. Hell, they didn’t even nominate Lost, which had a huge comeback. Maybe they’ll at least recognize the brilliant but understated Mad Men. At least they’re not pushing shite like Boston Legal.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Again, no FX? It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia is the funniest show on television! But in a close race I guess 30 Rock will top The Office, and both shows are legitimate contenders.

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Recount was wonderful, but John Adams should take this.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Giamatti is one of the best actors around, and it will be nice to see him recognized for not playing the schlump he usually does.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Coco Chanel? Are we really out of things to make movies about? Laura Linney is as underappreciated as Giamatti and deserves this one.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Well, we now know Duchovny wasn’t acting, so he’s out. Feel bad for Carell, who makes it look too easy, but Baldwin is in hog heaven with a role that suits him perfectly.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
There will be a deserved sympathetic push for Applegate, but Tina Fey was the biggest thing on television in 2008.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Personally I think Laurie is doing paint-by-numbers work, but I’m in the vast minority. Whomever wins this should immediately go find Walton Goggins and present it to him with an apology. How his dynamic, heartbreaking arc as doomed cop Shane Vendrell on The Shield didn’t even get a nomination is beyond me. A crime.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Sedgwick is the best from the field, but once again The Shield gets screwed. C.C.H.Pounder had her finest year yet as the exasperated moral center at The Barn, Claudette Wyms. (Okay, I’ll stop listing the cast of The Shield because Michael Chiklis, Jay Karnes and a couple of others got screwed also and this will get boring.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Harris could surprise; go Doogie! Leary is good but nominated for the wrong character. I think Tom Wilkinson steps in and steals this one.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Laura Dern was amazing, but something tells me Dianne Weist has enough compromising photos or voodoo tokens to nail down the win. If so, poetic justice: Dern’s character (Katherine Harris) losing a rigged election!

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One response to “Who Will Win And Why They Will

  1. Pingback: Golden Globes: Four Words « Dr. Bristol's Prescription

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