T.G.I.F. – Ten Oscar Predictions

Picking the Oscar winners…not whom I want to win, but whom I think will win, along with the reasoning for my selection. Enjoy the show Sunday night, and I’ll have the results and the feedback on Monday.

And don’t forget to tune into the 25th Annual Independent Spirit Awards tonight at 11pm Eastern Time on IFC; – certainly a looser, more fun-filled event with many quotable moments from actors who have been hitting the sauce under a beach tent all day (yes,  I mean you, Mickey Rourke! ) Eddie Izzard should prove to be a great host (although Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin should also make the Oscars worth watching!)

So let me get these out of the way with a weekend to spare; here are my Internet dollars placed down on ten important categories…

01. Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight) Hollywood loves to reward those who have done a good body of work but not gotten the glory; there’s also no lead male performance in this group that will become iconic.
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company)
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

 

02. Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Matt Damon in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
• Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
• Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” (DreamWorks in association with Film4, Distributed by Paramount)
• Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Any other year Tucci would win this – or even Christian McKay, who got snubbed here – but Waltz is the latest to seize a Tarantino character and ride it like an express train.

 

03. Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.) Bullock in a squeaker getting the Sally Field treatment, although I wouldn’t be shocked if Streep’s note-perfect Child or Sidibe’s raw debut won, either. But the coin goes here.
• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

 

04. Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Penélope Cruz in “Nine” (The Weinstein Company)
• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) This performance is just so powerful it has to win; people actually hated her leaving the theatre. Remember Louise Fletcher as Nurse Ratched?

 

05. Adapted screenplay

• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

  Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

• “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  Screenplay by Nick Hornby

• “In the Loop” (IFC Films)

  Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche

• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)

  Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Consolation prize; when your three main actors are nominated the writing must have been good, yes?

  Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

 

06. Original screenplay

• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

  Written by Mark Boal

• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)

  Written by Quentin Tarantino

  Another “we can’t give you Best Picture” consolation prize; the man does write great dialogue and his movies are never boring.

• “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

  Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman

• “A Serious Man” (Focus Features)

  Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

• “Up” (Walt Disney)

  Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

 

07. Best animated feature film of the year

• “Coraline” (Focus Features)

  Henry Selick

• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox)

  Wes Anderson

  “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney)

  John Musker and Ron Clements

• “The Secret of Kells” (GKIDS)

  Tomm Moore

• “Up” (Walt Disney)

  Pete Docter

  The opening sequence to this film nailed the win.

 

08. Best documentary feature

• “Burma VJ” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) A Magic Hour Films Production

  Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller

• “The Cove” (Roadside Attractions) An Oceanic Preservation Society Production

  Nominees to be determined

• “Food, Inc.” (Magnolia Pictures) A Robert Kenner Films Production

  Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein

  As always with documentaries, a hunch bet. What no Anvil?

• “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” A Kovno Communications Production

  Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith

• “Which Way Home” A Mr. Mudd Production

  Rebecca Cammisa

 

09. Achievement in directing

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox)

  James Cameron

• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

  Kathryn Bigelow

  I think when your work is based in the real world you get more credit, and I think people are still remembering how brash Cameron was after Titanic…

• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)

  Quentin Tarantino

• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)

  Lee Daniels

• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)

  Jason Reitman

 

10. Best motion picture of the year

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) A Lightstorm Entertainment Production

  James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

  …but I don’t think Hollywood can overlook a film that outgrosses Titanic. It’s not the best movie of the year – it’s a pretty cliché story – but it was a global juggernaut.

• “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.) An Alcon Entertainment Production

  Nominees to be determined

• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing) A Block/Hanson Production

  Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers

• “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics) A Finola Dwyer/Wildgaze Films Production

  Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers

• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) A Voltage Pictures Production

  Nominees to be determined

• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) A Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg Production

  Lawrence Bender, Producer

• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) A Lee Daniels Entertainment/Smokewood Entertainment Production

  Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers

• “A Serious Man” (Focus Features) A Working Title Films Production

  Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers

• “Up” (Walt Disney) A Pixar Production

  Jonas Rivera, Producer

• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) A Montecito Picture Company Production

  Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Check in Monday for my recap of Award Weekend.